人工增雨作業條件預測方法研究
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安徽省氣象局KG200706項目資助


A Forecasting Method for Seeding Conditions of Rain Enhancement
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    摘要:

    從國家級人工影響天氣業務指導產品的衛星資料反演產品和模式產品中選擇與安徽省自動雨量站1 h雨量和3 h雨量顯著相關的產品作為因子,利用Fisher方法分別建立了安徽省各個季節各自動雨量站1 h和3 h的人工增雨作業條件二級判別方程,定量給出是否具備可作業條件的判斷方法。回報試驗表明,1 h作業條件判別方程的準確率可達到70%左右,3 h作業條件判別方程的判別準確率在50%以上,方程均有較好的預報準確率,可以用于人工增雨作業條件預測業務,但春秋季和夏季的空報率相對較高,需要在業務應用中引起注意。

    Abstract:

    The factors which are significantly correlated with the 1 hour and 3 h rainfall from the rainfall data of automatic precipitation stations over Anhui Province are selected from the satellite products or model products in the national directive products for weather artificial modification. With the Fisher norm method and the factors, the equations of 1 hour and 3 hour operation condition discrimination are established for all seasons and automatic precipitation stations to judge quantitatively whether there are favorable operation conditions for seeding. The equations are tested and verified with history data, and the results indicate that the forecast accuracy of 1 hour and 3 hour seeding conditions is 70% or so and over 50% respectively, which means that the equations have satisfactory accuracy and can be used to predict seeding conditions. But it has to be noted that the nohitting rate is relatively high in spring, summer and autumn.

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袁野,李愛華,邵洋,周述學.人工增雨作業條件預測方法研究[J].氣象科技,2009,37(5):621~626

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  • 收稿日期:2009-03-16
  • 定稿日期:2009-06-14
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