近47年哈密地區氣候變化
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新疆維吾爾自治區氣象局氣象科研基金項目(200708)資助


Climatic Change in Hami Region in Resent 47 Years
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    摘要:

    利用新疆哈密地區5個氣象臺站1961~2007年氣候資料,采用線性回歸、Morlet小波和MannKendall突變檢測等方法,對哈密地區近47年的年平均氣溫、降水量、日照時數、年平均風速和相對濕度等氣候要素以及年潛在蒸散量和地表干燥度的變化趨勢和變化特征進行了研究。結果表明:①近47年哈密地區年平均氣溫、降水量和相對濕度呈升高趨勢,日照時數和年平均風速呈減小趨勢;②潛在蒸散量與年平均氣溫、日照時數和平均風速呈極顯著的正相關關系,而與年降水量和相對濕度呈極顯著的負相關關系。受上述各氣候要素變化的綜合影響,近47年,哈密地區潛在蒸散量和地表干燥度呈極顯著的減小趨勢;③突變檢測表明,哈密地區年平均氣溫、降水量分別在1973年、1965年發生了突變性的升高,而風速、潛在蒸散量和地表干燥度分別于1980年、1980年和1975年發生了極顯著的突變性減小,綜合氣溫和地表干燥度的突變特征,可以認為,哈密地區氣候在1973~1975年發生了“暖濕化”的突變;④各氣候要素和潛在蒸散量、地表干燥度分別存在不同時間尺度的周期性變化。

    Abstract:

    Based on the climatic data of 5 meteorological stations in Hami from 1961 to 2007,the fundamental change characteristics of various climatic element, such as temperatures, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity, potential evapotranspiration, and surface aridity are analyzed by using the linear regression, wavelet analysis and abrupt change detection methods in Hami in the resent 47 years. The main results are as follows: (1) The annual mean temperature, precipitation and relative humidity were increasing, but the annual sunshine hours and wind speed were decreasing.(2)The correlation analysis shows that there was significant positive correlation between potential evapotranspiration and annual mean temperature, annual sunshine hour and mean wind speed, and significant negative correlation between potential evapotranspiration and annual rainfall and relative humidity. Owing to the comprehensive influence of the above climatic factors, the potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity were significantly decreasing. (3) The abrupt change examination indicates that the annual mean temperature, precipitation had sudden increases in 1970 and 1965, and average wind speed, annual potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity had sudden decreases in 1980 and 1975, respectively. To sum up the sudden change characteristic of temperature and surface aridity, there occurred a “warmwet” sudden change in 1973〖CD*2〗1975. (4) There existed periodic changes of various time scales in various climatic elements and potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity in Hami.

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張山清,普宗朝,韓勇,魏根成.近47年哈密地區氣候變化[J].氣象科技,2009,37(5):560~566

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  • 收稿日期:2008-10-15
  • 定稿日期:2009-03-13
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