山東“7.18”致災暴雨成因分析
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武漢暴雨研究所暴雨研究開放基金項目(IHR2006G06)、山東省自然科學基金項目(Y2006E08)、山東省氣象局2005年重點攻關項目資助


Causal Analysis of a DiasterInducing Rainstorm in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用實況觀測資料、中尺度自動站資料和NCEP再分析資料,對2007年7月18日山東省大暴雨過程進行了診斷分析,同時還分析了暴雨致災原因。結果表明,本次大暴雨是由高空冷渦南部的低槽、底層準東西向切變線、副熱帶高壓西北邊緣的暖濕氣流以及來自東北南下冷空氣共同影響所致。低層前期明顯的持續升溫為暴雨的產生創造了極好的熱力條件,強盛的低空西南暖濕氣流輸送為此次暴雨提供了充足的水汽,同時山東上空低層高溫高濕、能量增大,形成上干冷下暖濕的對流性不穩定層結。沿850 hPa切變線北側東北氣流迂回南下的冷空氣與低空西南急流攜帶的暖濕空氣在山東交匯,冷暖空氣在對流層低層相互作用,具有明顯的暖鋒鋒生特征,弱冷空氣的低層侵入對暖濕空氣具有抬升作用,促使對流發展和不穩定能量釋放產生暴雨。地面存在中尺度輻合中心或輻合線的生成和發展,是這次大暴雨產生的啟動機制,大暴雨的分布與地面輻合線的走向基本一致。降水歷時短強度大,特殊的地勢地貌是本次暴雨致災的重要原因。

    Abstract:

    With observational data, mesoscale automatic weather station data and NCEP reanalysis data, a diagnostic analysis is made of the causes of a severe heavy rain occurred on 18 July 2007 in Shandong Province. The results show that the rainstorm was caused by the interaction of the westly trough originated from the cold vortex over the northeast China, the quasi eastwest oriented shear line at lower levels, and the warm and wet airflow on the northwest edge of the subtropical high and cold air from northeast. It is found that the continued warming and strong warmwet air transport at lower levels provided excellent thermal conditions and adequate water supply. Meanwhile, the convective unstable stratification was formed over Shandong Province. Along the shear line at 850 hPa, the northeast wind with cold air and the lowlevel southwest jet with warm air converged. Because of the interaction between the two airflows in the low troposphere, the warm front had obvious characteristics of frontogenesis. The uplifting of warm air caused by the weak lowlevel cold air intrusion promoted the development of convection and energy release. The mesoscale convergence center or convergence line activated the mechanisms of rainstorm formation, and the distribution of heavy rainfall had the same direction with the ground convergence line. The strong rainfall intensity and the special terrain topography played an important role in this rainstorminduced disaster.

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張少林,王俊,周雪松,盛日鋒.山東“7.18”致災暴雨成因分析[J].氣象科技,2009,37(5):527~532

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  • 收稿日期:2008-08-28
  • 定稿日期:2009-06-04
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