ECMWF產品逐日降水客觀預報業務系統
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甘肅省氣象局2007年重點科研項目“數值預報產品在河西精細化預報中的應用”資助


Operational Objective Forecast System of DaytoDay Precipitation Based on ECMWF Products
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    摘要:

    選用ECMWF格點場資料,用差分法、天氣診斷、因子組合等方法構造能反映本地天氣動力學特征的預報因子庫,對預報因子和預報量進行線性(0,1)標準化處理,采用PRESS準則初選因子,用最優子集回歸建立0~120 h降水預報方程,用多因子概率權重回歸預測其降水概率。預報系統投入業務應用,檢驗證明預報效果較好,提供了有效的地市級客觀預報指導產品。業務系統與MICAPS對接,實現全自動化,輸出的預報產品客觀、定量。

    Abstract:

    By selecting of the ECMWF grid fields and using of such methods as differential method, synoptic diagnosis, factor combination, etc, the predictor database that can reflect the local characteristics of synoptic dynamics was established. The “0, 1” linearization was conducted on the predictors and predictands, and the initial selection was based on the PRESS (Prediction Residual Error Sum of Squares) criterion. The 0〖KG-*3〗〖CD*2〗〖KG-*6〗120 hour precipitation prediction equation was established with the optimal subset regression method, and the precipitation probability was predicted with the multifactor probability weighting regression method. The forecast system has been put into operation, and the verification proved that the forecasting performance and the provided prefecturelevel guidance objective forecasting products are satisfactory. The forecast system can be connected with MICAPS to realize the highlevel automation and assure the objective and quantitative forecast products.

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錢莉,楊曉玲,殷玉春. ECMWF產品逐日降水客觀預報業務系統[J].氣象科技,2009,37(5):513~519

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  • 收稿日期:2008-09-16
  • 定稿日期:2009-06-04
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