21世紀末華南汛期強降水變化分析
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Changes of FloodSeason Severe Precipitation over South China in 2071-2100
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    摘要:

    利用英國Hadley氣候預測與研究中心的區域氣候模式系統PRECIS,基于政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)2000年“排放情景特別報告”(SRES)B2情景下對華南區域2071~2100年汛期(前汛期:4~6月;后汛期:7~9月)強降水的模擬結果進行分析。結果顯示PRECIS對華南地區汛期強降水具有較好的模擬能力。相對1961~1990年(以下稱氣候基準時段),2071~2100年華南汛期的強降水比例有所增大,強降水日數變化百分數大值中心分布在廣西中北部和福建省北部,后汛期大值中心主要分布在廣東和福建省。對華南4省(區)除了海南島外各省逐月變化百分數基本為正值,汛期極端降水的發生頻率相比氣候基準時段有明顯增加。

    Abstract:

    Based on the results simulated by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), which is developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, the changes of floodseason heavy rainfall under tthe SRES B2 scenario over South China during 2071〖CD*2〗2100 are analyzed. It is shown that PRECIS has the capability to simulate floodseason severe heavy rainfall. The percentage of severe heavy rainfall to total rainfall in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 would increase relative to 1961〖CD*2〗1990 (the baseline). The percentage of the number of severe rainnig days in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 is analyzed, and the results show that there would be a maximum center in the centralnorth part of Guangxi and the northern Fujian during the earlier floodseason, and there would be a maximum center in Guangdong and Fujian during the later floodseason. The change percentage in each month during flood season is positive over South China except for Hainan. The occurrence frequency of floodseason severe precipitation events in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 would increase obviously.

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黃曉瑩,譚浩波,李菲,許吟隆.21世紀末華南汛期強降水變化分析[J].氣象科技,2009,37(4):425~428

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  • 收稿日期:2008-06-04
  • 定稿日期:2009-03-22
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