雷達降水估測優化及其在暴雨預警中的應用
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桂林市科技局科技攻關項目(2007021604)、廣西氣象局重點攻關項目(QK200727)、廣西科學技術廳自然基金項目(桂科自0728076)、國家自然科學基金項目(40865001)資助


Application of RadarPredicted/Estimated Precipitation Products in Rainstorm Warning
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    摘要:

    根據多普勒雷達反射率因子、自動站雨量資料,運用降水算法、最優插值法、交叉相關法計算校正降水估測及預測產品,經檢驗,降水估測、預測產品能達到較高的準確率。將兩種產品結合使用生成不同時段的累積降水合成產品,應用于0604號臺風“碧利斯”及“070608、080612、080803”低槽(渦)及切變線強降水過程的臨近預報服務中,及時有效指導連續性大暴雨過程各級暴雨預警信號的發布。結果表明,降水合成產品對暴雨預警信號的等級及發布時間的確定有較好的指導作用,在沒有安裝自動雨量站的區域,其指導作用更為重要。

    Abstract:

    Based on the Doppler radar basic reflectivity and rain gauge data, the estimated and predicted precipitation products are produced by means of the precipitation algorithm, the optimal interpolation method, and the crosscorrelation method. The verification indicates that the estimated and predicted rainfall is more accurate. With the two kinds of precipitation products, the accumulated precipitation products for different periods were generated and applied in the nowcasting services of the typhoon Bilis (200604), and some other severe rainfall events (070608, 080612 and 200803) induced by lowpressure vortex shears. On the basis of the accumulated precipitation products, the yellow and orange rainstorm warnings were issued on these processes timely and effectively. The results show that the accumulated precipitation products play an important role in determining the grades and the issuing time of warning on continuous heavy precipitation processes. In the region without automatic meteorological stations, the significance is even more prominent.

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周文志,王艷蘭,李耀先.雷達降水估測優化及其在暴雨預警中的應用[J].氣象科技,2009,37(4):407~410

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  • 收稿日期:2008-09-03
  • 定稿日期:2009-01-03
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