基于新等級標準中國登陸熱帶氣旋氣候及變化特征
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國家自然科學基金項目(40575021)和廣州中心氣象臺科研基金共同資助


Climatic Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China Based on New Grade Standards
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    摘要:

    利用1949~2006年熱帶氣旋(TC)年鑒資料,根據2006年新制定的TC等級標準,分析了登陸我國TC的氣候特征。結果表明:登陸TC中強熱帶風暴(STS,38.5%)最多,其余依次為臺風(TY)、熱帶風暴(TS)、強臺風(STY)和超強臺風(SuperTY)。59%的STY和66.7%的SuperTY在臺灣省登陸,盡管登陸廣東的TC最多,但登陸的STY和SuperTY卻很少。7~9月是TC登陸活躍期,而8~9月登陸TC平均強度最強。登陸TC頻數具有明顯的年際和年代際變化特征,其中登陸TC頻數呈弱的減少趨勢,而TY及以上級別TC頻數則有增加趨勢。在全球氣候變暖背景下,登陸TC的生成源地有向北移的趨勢,然而近年來南落明顯。登陸TC的平均強度出現減弱趨勢,但進入21世紀以來,平均強度顯著增強,尤其是TC逐年強度極值表現更為明顯。登陸TC的平均登陸點無明顯的南北偏移,但逐年登陸點最北緯度在20世紀70年代中期以后有南落現象,以35°N以南為主。

    Abstract:

    Based on the 1949-2006 Tropical Cyclone Yearbooks and the new tropical cyclone (TC) grade standards, a climatological analysis of landfalling TC over China is carried out. Results show that, out of all landfalling TC, severe tropical storm (STS) takes up a maximal proportion of 38.5%, then typhoon (TY), tropical storm (TS), severe typhoon (STY) and super typhoon (SuperTY). The 59% STY and 67% SuperTY land over Taiwan Island. Guangdong is the province that is attacked mostly frequently by TCs, but scarcely by STYs and SuperTYs. The most active period for TCs is from July to September with the strongest mean intensity in August and September. There are obvious interannual and interdecadal changes in the frequency of landfalling TCs, with a weak decrease tendency in the total landfalling TCs and an increase tendency in those categorized as TYs, STYs and SuperTYs. Under the background of global warming, the landfalling TCs, averagely, show a trend of northward movement in the formation source region and weak decrease in intensity in recent several decades. Since the beginning of the 2000s, there is an obvious southward movement in the formation source region and a significant increase in mean intensity for landfalling TCs, especially for the annual maximum central wind and minimal central pressure. There is no obvious change in the mean latitude of landfalling location for all TCs in the past decades, while the annual northernmost latitude moves southwards, mostly below 35°N since the middle 1970s.

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劉燕,林良勛,黃忠,程正泉.基于新等級標準中國登陸熱帶氣旋氣候及變化特征[J].氣象科技,2009,37(3):294~300

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  • 收稿日期:2008-03-12
  • 定稿日期:2008-06-03
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