兩種初始場MM5模式預報效果對比評估
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河北省氣象局科研項目“NCEP、EC資料的開發及在短時、短期預報中的應用”資助


Comparison and Evaluation of MM5 Forecasting Results between Two Different Initial Fields
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    摘要:

    為了解本地MM5模式的預報性能,根據其預報結果,檢驗了基于NCEP和T213兩種初始場MM5模式在河北以及京津地區2007年8月至2008年1月的降水、日極值溫度和相對濕度的預報效果。結果表明,MM5晴雨(雪)預報的準確率較高,具有較好的參考價值,而對于降水的分級預報,隨著預報時效的延長和降水強度的增加,其可用性逐漸降低,但整體來看基于NCEP初始場的預報均比T213初始場預報效果明顯;在日極值溫度預報中,最低溫度效果優于最高溫度,T213初始場的預報對日最高溫度預報的準確率較高,NCEP初始場的預報則在日最低溫度預報中略勝一籌;對08:00相對濕度的預報,兩者的預報效果基本相同,絕對誤差都在15%左右。

    Abstract:

    In order to know the forecasting performance of the localized MM5 model, the forecast capabilities of MM5 in precipitation, extreme temperature and humidity are verified and assessed in statistical methods according to the forecast results in the later half of 2007 with the NCEP and T213 initial fields in the Hebei and BeijingTianjin region. The results indicate: (1) The accuracy of fineorrainy forecasting is higher, with better value for reference, but for grade forecasting, the usability of forecasts decreases with the increasing of lead time and precipitation intensity. Generally speaking, the precipitation forecast based on the NCEP initial field is better than that based on T213. (2) For the forecasts of daily extreme temperature, the minimum temperature forecasts are better than maximum temperature forecasts; the accuracy of the maximum temperature forecasts with the T213 initial fields is better, while that of the minimum temperature forecasts with the NCEP initial fields is better. (3) The result of humidity at 08:00 shows that, there is no obvious difference in the results between two initial fields, with the absolute error being about 15%.

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張南,侯瑞欽.兩種初始場MM5模式預報效果對比評估[J].氣象科技,2009,37(2):129~134

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  • 收稿日期:2008-02-21
  • 定稿日期:2008-09-08
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