湖南伏旱期旱澇變化特征及其與前期環流之關聯
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湖南省科技廳項目“氣候變暖背景下湖南省極端天氣和氣候事件特征分析及趨勢預測”(05FJ4064)資助


Relation between Characteristics of Summer Drought and Flood Variation and Antecedent Circulation in Hunan Province
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    摘要:

    利用1961~2006年7月降水資料和z指數、小波分析及相關分析法,分析了湖南伏旱期旱澇多時間尺度變化特征及其與500 hPa高度的關系。結果表明:湖南伏旱期雨澇指數增大趨勢顯著,20世紀90年代以來處于雨澇多發期。雨澇指數具有22年、12年、6~7年和3~4年的明顯周期;干旱指數具有20年和10年明顯周期。旱澇指數與500 hPa高度相關分析顯示z指數與前期,特別是2月500 hPa高度有較好的相關關系,典型澇年東西伯利亞〖CD*2〗鄂霍次克海地區500 hPa呈明顯的負距平,西太平洋副高區為明顯的正距平,而典型旱年東西伯利亞〖CD*2〗鄂霍次克海地區500 hPa呈明顯的正距平,西太平洋副高區為明顯的負距平。

    Abstract:

    Droughts and floods from 1961 to 2006 in summer drought seasons in Hunan Province are analyzed by using z index, and the variation characteristics of multiscale drought and flood activities are analyzed by the wavelet analysis method. The results show that there was a significant increasing trend in the flood index in the past 46 years; floods occurred more frequently from the 1990s. It is also found that there were significant periods of 22 years, 12 years, 6 to 7 years, 3 to 4 years in the flood index, and significant periods of 20 years, 10 years in the drought index. Relation analyses between 500 hPa height and z index show that there existed good correlation between z index and 500 hPa height, especially in February. In heavy flood years, 500 hPa anomalies were prominently negative in the eastern Siberian and positive in the subtropical high pressure zone; in contrast in heavy drought years, 500 hPa anomalies were obviously positive in the eastern Siberian and negative in the subtropical high pressure zone.

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羅伯良,張超.湖南伏旱期旱澇變化特征及其與前期環流之關聯[J].氣象科技,2009,37(1):19~24

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  • 收稿日期:2007-11-19
  • 定稿日期:2008-01-24
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