用短期降水預報做洪水預報與調度的應用試驗
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Application of ShortRange Weather Forecast in Flood Forecast and Water Resources Mangement
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    摘要:

    利用2003~2007年潘家口水庫流域10場較大降水及其對應的河北省氣象局MM5的面雨量預報數據,采用降水預報格點數據與水文洪水預報耦合的方法進行水庫的洪水預報和調度,增長了水文洪水預報的預見期,在不增加水庫工程投資,不增加上下游和工程風險的前提下,在汛期實施風險調度,以此發揮水庫在洪水資源化調度中作用,解決防洪與蓄水的矛盾。

    Abstract:

    Using the precipitation data of 10 heavy rainfall events over the drainage area of the Panjiakou reservoir and the corresponding surface rainfall forecasts of the MM5 in Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau, combining the the precipitation forecast gridpoint data with the hydrological flood forecasts, the flood forecasting and water resources mangement experiment for the reservoir was conducted, in which the forecast period of hydrological flood forecasting was increased. With the increased forecast lead time of the floods, it is possible to make the reservoir play a significant role in converting floods into water resources in flooding season without additional investment and without increasing the risk of the upper and lower reaches of the river.

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于占江,溫立成,居麗玲.用短期降水預報做洪水預報與調度的應用試驗[J].氣象科技,2008,36(6):822~825

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  • 收稿日期:2007-08-13
  • 定稿日期:2008-05-02
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