基于內澇模型的西安市區強降水內澇成因分析
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Causalative Analysis of Urban Waterlogging Induced by Severe Rainfall in Xi’an with Numerical Model
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    摘要:

    利用西安市近10~40年降水資料、市政信息資料,采用統計學方法,分析了強降水內澇的成因。結果表明:短時強降水或過程量偏大的降水天氣過程是引發西安市內澇的直接氣象因素;排水能力的強弱是發生內澇關鍵因素;隨著城市化的發展,極端雨強的強度及大于10 mm/h降水的總時次數均有上升趨勢,強降水發生概率的提高加強了內澇災害發生頻率及強度,城市效應是內澇加強的主要原因。用西安市強降水內澇仿真模型來進行模擬試驗表明:西安是一個內澇發生降水雨強臨界值偏低的城市,小時雨強3 mm/h、13 mm/h是發生內澇、嚴重內澇的臨界值,天氣預報、雨情監測重點及市政防御關鍵部位是西北區??傮w上縮小井距效果好一些。

    Abstract:

    The hourtohour precipitation data in the recent 10 to 40 years in Xi’an and waterlogging information from the local government are used to analyze the formation causes of waterlogging induced by severe rainfall. The shorttime severe rain, or rain with large amount, is the direct cause for Xi’an’s waterlogging, and the drainage capacity is also a key factor. Along with the development of Xi’an’s urbanization, both the intensity of severe rainfall and the number of severe rains with 1hour precipitation being greater than 10 mm increase. The increased frequency of severe rains increased the frequency and intensity of waterlogging, and the urbanization is the main cause of the enhanced urban waterlogging. The simulation analysis using the Waterlogging Numerical Model reveals that the thresholds of rain intensity for waterlogging in Xi’an are relatively low, 3 mm/h for waterlogging and 13 mm/h for severe waterlogging. The northwestern part of Xi’an is the most critical zone for weather forecasting, disaster monitoring and municipal waterlogging defense departments. Generally speaking, to shorten the distances between drainage wells is an effective approach.

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王建鵬,薛春芳,解以揚,金麗娜,薛榮.基于內澇模型的西安市區強降水內澇成因分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(6):772~775

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  • 收稿日期:2007-04-27
  • 定稿日期:2007-07-28
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