近45年大連地區氣溫日較差的演變趨勢分析
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大連市科技委項目“基于GIS的大連氣候資源空間化研究”(2006E21SF083)資助


Trend of Diurnal Temperature Range in Dalian in Recent 45 Years
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    摘要:

    利用MannKendall方法對大連地區7個氣象站點1961~2005年的氣溫日較差進行了趨勢分析,并根據各因子趨勢值,應用相關統計法分析了影響氣溫日較差呈減小趨勢的因子。得到結論如下:①大連地區四季氣溫日較差呈現顯著減小趨勢,其中以秋季和冬季減小趨勢最顯著,夏季最弱。各季節平均氣溫、最高氣溫和最低氣溫呈顯著上升趨勢。最低氣溫較最高氣溫和平均氣溫升高趨勢顯著。②大連地區與月平均日較差相關性最強的因子是風速,其次是最低氣溫、水汽壓和云量,都呈負相關,與最高氣溫呈正相關。③春夏季,日較差下降主要受最高氣溫的變化驅動,而秋冬季節則主要受最低氣溫變化的影響。

    Abstract:

    The nonparametric MannKendall trend test is applied to examine the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) of Dalian from 1961 to 2005.The method of correlative analysis is used to analyze the factors influencing DTR. The results show: (1) The trends of mean DTRs in four seasons showed a statistically significant decrease, especially in autumn and winter, the least significant in summer. But the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures in four seasons had a statistically significant increasing trend in four seasons, and the trends of minimum temperature were much larger than those of maximum temperature. (2) DTR was negatively correlated with wind speed closely, as well as with minimum temperature, cloud cover, and vapor, but correlated with maximum temperature positively. (3)The factors related to the trends of DTR vary with season. In spring and summer, the trend of DTR is more closely correlated with the trend of maximum temperature than with minimum temperature, but in autumn and winter, the increasing trends of minimum temperature are more significant than those of maximum temperature. In spring, the increasing trends of wind speed and water vapor pressure contribute to the increasing trends of DTR, and in summer and autumn, the increasing trend of cloud cover is another cause of DTR decrease.

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祝青林,王秀萍,王麗娜,蘇艷華.近45年大連地區氣溫日較差的演變趨勢分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(6):745~749

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  • 收稿日期:2007-09-06
  • 定稿日期:2007-11-12
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