CAFCM方案與其它幾種人工增雨評估方案的比較
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國家自然科學基金項目(40333033)、(40175001)、國家“十五”科技攻關計劃(2001BA610A0605)、“奧運科技”專項(2001BA904B09)、中國科學院大氣物理研究所創新項目(84605) 共同資助


Comparison between CAFCM and Some Other Methods for Evaluating Precipitation Enhancement Effectiveness
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    摘要:

    對河南省12次飛機增雨作業,分別采用作業區域趨勢對比雙比分析評估方案、區域趨勢相關回歸分析方案、區域趨勢協變量多元回歸分析方案、浮動對比區歷史回歸分析方案(FCM)、以降水量為協變量的CAFCM(ClusterAnalysis〖CD*2〗based Floating Control historical regression Method)方案和以降水量和整層大氣可降水量為協變量的CAFCM方案進行效果評估,均得到大于15%的相對增雨量。對結果比較分析表明:協變量由降水量和整層大氣降水量兩個組成的C

    Abstract:

    The effectiveness evaluation of precipitation enhancement is made of 12 aircraft cloud seeding operations over the central Hebai Province by means of such evaluation methods as the double contrast based on regional rainfall tendencies, the correlative regression analysis based on regional rainfall tendencies, the covariable multiple regression analysis based on regional rainfall tendencies, the floating control historical regression method, the ClusterAnalysis〖CD*2〗based Floating Control historical regression Method (CAFCM) using rainfall as a covariant, and the CAFCM using rainfall and atmospheric precipitable water as covariants, all of which show greater than 15% or higher relative enhancement of rainfall. The comparison between CAFCM and the other evaluation methods indicates that the CAFCM using rainfall and atmospheric precipitable water as covariants is better than the others, because it adopts cluster analysis, which improves greatly the rainfall correlativity between control and target areas, and increases the accuracy of natural rainfall estimations over the cloud seeding areas by using atmospheric precipitable water as a covariant.

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房彬,肖輝,班顯秀. CAFCM方案與其它幾種人工增雨評估方案的比較[J].氣象科技,2008,36(5):612~621

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  • 收稿日期:2007-06-08
  • 定稿日期:2008-01-23
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