幾種降水集成預報方法的對比分析
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Comparative Analysis of Several Consensus Precipitation Forecasting Methods
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    摘要:

    采用多數表決集成法、評分權重集成法、多元回歸集成法對承德市西來系統形成的降水進行晴雨和分級集成預報試驗。結果表明:在每種單一的數值預報方法TS值均較高,總體預報質量相差不大的情況下,多數表決集中集成法可大幅度提高預報準確率;如果幾種數值預報對于降水分級預報的預報準確率相差較大時,可采用評分權重集成法來提高總體預報質量;在樣本足夠的條件下,細化的預報結果多元回歸集成法是晴雨預報和分級降水預報中比較可行的集成方法之一。

    Abstract:

    The graded precipitation and rainy/fine forecasting experiments are conducted by means of several consensus methods such as majority voting, weighted scoring, and multivariable regression on precipitation caused by weather systems from west in Chengde. The results indicate that when there is relative high individual TS’s and slightly varied total forecasting performance, the majority voting method can improve the forecasting accuracy greatly; when the accuracies of various numerical forecasting methods for graded precipitation forecasting varied greatly, the weighted scoring method performed better; when there are enough samples, the refined repression method is more feasible for rainy/fine forecasting and graded precipitation forecast.

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彭九慧,丁力,楊慶紅.幾種降水集成預報方法的對比分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(5):520~523

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  • 收稿日期:2007-06-22
  • 定稿日期:2007-09-07
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