梅州近50年氣候變化特征及未來變化趨勢
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Climate Change in Meizhou in Recent 50 Years and Trends
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    摘要:

    采用線性趨勢方程、滑動平均和R/S(rescaled range analysis)分析方法對1953~2006年梅州市氣溫、降水的各季及年平均值進行了分析。結果表明,50年來梅州市各季和年平均氣溫呈上升趨勢,冬季氣溫增暖速率最大;年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水量也處于增多時段,而夏季降水的變化傾向率最大。R/S分析表明:氣溫、降水兩氣候要素存在明顯的赫斯特(Hurst)現象,即梅州市氣候變化存在著持續性;氣溫的Hurst指數表明,梅州市未來的年平均氣溫和各季平均氣溫都會繼續呈上升趨勢,未來夏季平均氣溫的增暖趨勢將更為明顯;降水量的Hurst指數表明,梅州市未來的年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水趨勢是增多的,而秋季降水維持減少趨勢,未來春季雨水增多的趨勢將更為明顯。

    Abstract:

    The seasonal and annual mean temperature and rainfall from 1953 to 2006 in Meizhou are calculated and analyzed by the means of the linear tendency equation, running mean and R/S (rescaled range analysis) methods. The results indicate that the seasonal and annual mean temperatures in the last 50 years assume increasing trends with the winter temperature having the greatest rate. The annual rainfall and the rainfall in spring, summer and winter also increased, with the summer rainfall having the biggest tendency rate. The R/S results show that temperature and rainfall, have obvious Hurst phenomenon; namely the climatic change in Meizhou has persistence. The H temperature index indicates that the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Meizhou will continue to assume increasing trends. The temperature increase trend in summer will be more obvious. The H rainfall index indicates that the annul rainfall and rainfall in spring, summer and winter will show an upward tendency while the rainfall in autumn will keep a downward tendency. The increase tendency of spring rainfall will be more obvious.

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羅碧瑜,陳映強,賀漢清,張晨輝,林巧美,李源鋒.梅州近50年氣候變化特征及未來變化趨勢[J].氣象科技,2008,36(3):289~292

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  • 收稿日期:2007-03-27
  • 定稿日期:2007-06-13
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