長江源流量對長江源流域氣候年代際變化的響應
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國家自然科學基金項目“全球氣候變化對三江源地區水資源的影響研究”(40465002)和國家自然科學基金重大項目“青海湖地區的氣候——構造歷史與青藏高原隆升生長及全球變化的聯系”(40599424)共同資助


Response of Runoff to Interannual Climate Change over Changjiang River Source Region
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    摘要:

    利用長江源流域氣象站降水、氣溫資料和源區直門達水文站流量,建立了歷年各月、季降水距平百分率和氣溫距平序列,分析了長江源流量與長江源流域降水、氣溫的年代際變化。結果表明,長江源流域氣候演變存在非常明顯的年代際變化。年降水量呈平緩下降趨勢,60、80年代年降水量正常或偏多,70、90年代偏少,主要受夏季降水的影響;年氣溫明顯呈上升趨勢,60年代最冷,70年代開始回升, 80年代暖在冬, 90年代暖在秋,目前年、夏、秋、冬季已達到1961年以來的最暖期;年流量與年降水的年代際變化、突變年份對應, 60、80年代偏多,70、90年代偏少,目前除春季流量外,夏、秋、冬季已轉入上升趨勢,1965、1979、1997年二者均發生了突變。

    Abstract:

    The precipitation anomaly percentage series and air temperature anomaly series in each month and season over the Changjiang River source region are established, and the interannual change of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff is analyzed, based on the precipitation and air temperature data at eight meteorological stations and runoff data at the Zhimenda hydrological station over the Changjiang river source region. The result shows that the climate over the Changjiang River source region has a very significant interannual change. The precipitation amount was normal or greafer than normal in the 1960s and 1980s, and less than normal in the 1970s and 1990s, which attributed mainly to precipitation variation in summer. Annual air temperature has a rising trend, with the coldest period in the 1960s, warm autumns in the 1990s, and warm winters in the 1980s; the warming began from the 1970s and became fast after the 1990s. Presently, the annual, summer, autumn and winter temperatures are the highest since 1960s. The annual runoff corresponded to the interannual change and abrupt change years, greater than normal in the 1960s and 1980s, less than normal in the 1970s and 1990s. Except in spring, the runoffs in summer, autumn and winter start to rise at present, and there were abrupt changes in 1965, 1979 and 1997.

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劉青春,秦寧生,許維俊,時興合,汪青春,馮蜀青.長江源流量對長江源流域氣候年代際變化的響應[J].氣象科技,2008,36(3):277~280

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  • 收稿日期:2007-03-27
  • 定稿日期:2007-06-25
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