一次颮線天氣過程多普勒雷達產品分析及臨近預報
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北京市氣象局預報員專項“CINRADSA雷達在強對流天氣臨近預報中的應用”資助


Analysis and Nowcasting of a Squall Line Using Dopper Radar Products
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    摘要:

    為了對颮線這類強天氣作有效的預報、預警,同時對臨近預報系統的預報效果作初步的檢驗,利用常規氣象資料、自動站資料、多普勒雷達資料,結合臨近預報系統分析了2006年8月1日北京地區颮線天氣過程。結果表明:颮線是在有利的天氣形勢下發生的,颮線上強風暴的強度大、高度高;颮線速度剖面圖中顯示有低層輻散、中層輻合、高層輻散的特征;垂直累積液態水含量迅猛增加到比較大的數值對冰雹預報有很好的指示意義;在冰雹指數產品中以強冰雹概率大于30%作為冰雹預警門限則有較好的效果;邊界層輻合線起到了觸發對流和加強對流的作用。臨近預報

    Abstract:

    In order to effectively forecast or forewarn squall lines and verify the effectiveness of the nowcasting system, a squall line occurring on 1 August 2006 in Beijing is analyzed by using conventional weather data, automatic weather station data, Doppler radar data, and the nowcasting system. The results suggest that the squall line occurred under the favorable weather conditions. The severe storms on the squall line had large radar reflectivity and high tops of echoes. There was a divergence at lower level, a convergence at middle level, and a divergence at upper level in the velocity cross section of the squall. The VIL (Vertical Integrated Liquid water) of the storms increased rapidly to a large value, which is a good indictor of hailstorm. When the probability of severe hail is larger than 30% according to the hail index products, a hail storm is very likely to happen. The convergence line in the boundary can trigger and intensify convections. The nowcasting system is a good tool for nowcasting severe convections.

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丁青蘭,劉武,朱曉虎,李靖.一次颮線天氣過程多普勒雷達產品分析及臨近預報[J].氣象科技,2008,36(2):160~163

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  • 收稿日期:2006-11-09
  • 定稿日期:2007-01-03
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