基于支持向量機的浙江汛期旱澇預測方法研究
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浙江省科技廳重點項目“氣候模式統計降尺度集成技術的應用研究”資助


SVMBased Method for Predicting Droughts and Floods in Flood Season over Zhejiang Province
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    摘要:

    利用浙江省38個測站的降水量資料,得到了能夠反映全省旱澇狀況的指標,將其作為預報量,通過對前期大氣環流場、海溫場的相關分析,提取高相關因子,然后運用逐步回歸和支持向量機回歸技術分別建立浙江省汛期旱澇短期氣候預測模型,并進行了對比分析。結果表明:支持向量機回歸模型集中了眾多預報因子的預報信息,有效地利用了支持向量機方法的非線性映射能力,無論在歷史樣本擬合的精度上還是模型實際預測的能力上都比逐步回歸模型有一定提高,有良好的應用前景。

    Abstract:

    The prediction models of droughts and floods in flood season over Zhejiang Province are built based on the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. By use of rainfall data from 38 observation stations, the indexes of drought and flood intensities are devised, which can represent the overall state of droughts and floods in Zhejiang Province. Taking the indexes as predictands and antecedent atmospheric circulation and SST, which exhibit high correlation with the predictands, as predictors, the prediction models of droughts and floods for Zhejiang based on the and regression method are built, respectively. The comparison between the prediction results by two methods shows that the SVM prediction model could make use of the plentiful predictor’s information and nonlinear projection capability effectively, and shows better performance,which was confirmed by both training and testing samples.

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滕衛平,俞善賢,胡波.基于支持向量機的浙江汛期旱澇預測方法研究[J].氣象科技,2008,36(2):139~144

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-08
  • 定稿日期:2007-03-27
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