五臺山站歷史氣候資料的均一性分析
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TP273.5 TN959.4

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國家自然科學基金(40605021)和科技部基礎條件平臺(2005DKA31700-01)資助


Homogeneity Analysis of Historical Meteorological Data at Wutaishan
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    摘要:

    以山西五臺山地面觀測站為例,對建站(1957年1月)至2005年的年、季節平均氣溫、最高和最低氣溫、相對濕度和降水觀測資料序列作均一性分析,結合歷史沿革變化(包括遷站、儀器變化和觀測業務改變等),得出這些因素對不同氣候要素均一性的影響情況。從與該站不同要素序列相關性較好、水平距離最近的臺站中選取若干站點作為待檢臺站的參考臺站建立了各自的參考序列作為均一性檢查的對比序列,采用國際上應用較為廣泛的標準正態檢驗(SNHT)方法分別對各種要素進行了統計學檢驗。對統計方法得到的不連續點(不均一性產生年份)進行了總結分析,發現臺站遷移對于溫度、相對濕度觀測序列的均一性帶來的影響非常明顯,其中對最高氣溫序列影響最為顯著,達到5.5 ℃。深入分析還表明,遷址對各要素的影響程度各有區別:對相對濕度的年均和春季序列也產生了較為明顯的非均一性,而對降水量的影響則并不顯著。綜合分析表明,常用觀測要素的均一性檢驗和訂正是局地氣候變化檢測的基礎環節,但不同要素的均一性受到各種因素影響的表現程度各不相同,需要加以區別和深入研究。

    Abstract:

    According to the metadata of in situ observation at Wutaishan (53588) of Shanxi Province, including information about station relocation, instrumentation change, and observing and data processing procedure changes, etc., the homogeneities of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation time series are analyzed from January 1957 to 2005. The reference series for different meteorological variables are constructed by combining the corresponding observed data at five nearby stations with the largest correlation in candidate stations, and then based on the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) technique, each meteorological variable is statistically tested, respectively. The discontinuous points obtained from SNHT are analyzed and compared. Results indicate that the influence of station relocation on 1 January 1998 on the homogeneities of different meteorological variables mentioned above is very obvious, and that on the maximum temperature time series is the most significant, being 5.5 ℃. Further analysis shows that this station relocation has different effects on the other meteorological variables time series; for example, the influence on the homogeneities of annual and spring relative humidity time series are also obvious, but not on precipitation. The tests and adjustment of the in situ climatic data series used frequently are important to local climate change researches. The effects of various “nonclimate” factors on different meteorological variables vary, so more careful distinction and further research are needed.

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高曉容,李慶祥,董文杰.五臺山站歷史氣候資料的均一性分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(1):112~118

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  • 收稿日期:2007-03-09
  • 定稿日期:2007-07-26
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