青藏高原東北側一次持續性暴雨過程分析
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P457.6 S667.1

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甘肅省氣象科研項目“建立基于數值預報產品的全省中、短期降水解釋預報系統”和甘肅省氣象局十人計劃項目共同資助


Analysis of a Continuous Heavy Rain Northeast of Tibetan Plateau
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    摘要:

    利用常規天氣圖、數值預報產品、衛星云圖以及潰變理論的預報工具V3θ圖,對2005年6月30日至7月2日發生在青藏高原東北側甘肅省區域性持續暴雨天氣過程進行了診斷應用綜合分析。結果表明:副熱帶高壓西伸北抬外圍西南風氣流控制青藏高原東北側,當東北低渦、西風帶的冷空氣與西南風交匯時,觸發強對流; 850~200 hPa有深厚的水汽層;700 hPa穩定的低渦切變為暴雨提供了強烈持續的輻合上升運動;衛星云圖表明持續性暴雨由多個相繼生消的中尺度對流系統影響造成的?;跐⒆兝碚摰念A報方法在西北區域性持續暴雨的起報、結束及落區有很好的預測能力。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of the routine weather charts, numerical prediction products, satellite cloud pictures and the V3θ diagram from the breakingupevolving theory, the regional continual rainstorm process occurred in Gansu to the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau from 30 June to 2 July 2005 is diagnosed and analyzed. The results show that during the heavy rainfall,the subtropical high pressure extended to west and lifted the external southwest current to north, which controlled the northeast party of the QinghaiXizang Plateau; when the Mongolia vortex, the westerly cold airflow and the southwest wind converged, a strong convection was triggered; there was a deep water vapor level between 850 hPa and 200 hPa and a stable vortex shear on 700 hPa, providing continuously strong rising movement for the heavy rainfall; and several Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) appeared successively on the satellite cloud pictures. It is concluded that the prediction method based on the breakingupevolving theory is capable of forecasting the beginning, ending and areas of continuous heavy rainfall in the Northwest China.

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樊曉春,馬鵬里,王位泰.青藏高原東北側一次持續性暴雨過程分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(1):69~73

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  • 收稿日期:2006-12-11
  • 定稿日期:2007-03-26
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