AREM模式對0604、0605號臺風的預報分析
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P456.7 P481

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國家自然科學基金


Prediction and Analysis of Typhoon Bilis and Geami with AREM
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    摘要:

    對2006年7月中下旬由西太平洋地區生成,登陸我國,并對我國造成嚴重影響的強熱帶風暴“碧利斯”(0604號)和臺風“格美”(0605號)的基本情況做了詳細的總結,并基于武漢暴雨所AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model)模式預報的700 hPa流場、900 hPa風場及降水量場,就模式對臺風登陸時間、登陸地點、移動路徑及其引發的附近最大風力和降水過程的預報情況做了分析。結果表明:“碧利斯”達強熱帶風暴強度,于7月14日12:50在福建霞浦登陸,后西行,造成位于21°N以北、28°N以南東西向的帶狀雨區,“格美”為臺風強度,于7月25日15:50在福建晉江圍頭鎮登陸,后西行,造成華東南地區近西南-東北走向的雨帶,兩臺風給沿途及附近省份造成嚴重的氣象災害和人、財損失;AREM模式總體上對兩臺風附近最大風速,風雨帶的基本位置、形態、走勢、強度預報較好,對一些強降水中心的預報較為理想,但多數強中心的預報與實況存在位置和強度上的偏差;模式對于臺風登陸時間和地點的預報較好,偏差較小,對于兩臺風西行走勢的預報也基本符合實況,但也存在一定的預報位置偏差。

    Abstract:

    The circulation patterns of the typhoon BILIS and GEAMI are described and summarized. Both occurred in July 2006 over the West Pacific Ocean, landed in the southeast coast of China, and caused serious damages. Based on the outputs of the 700 hPa stream field, 900 hPa wind field and rainfall field of AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model), the predictions of landing time, landing location, moving route and the maximum wind and precipitation of typhoon are analyzed. The results show that Bilis landed at Xiapu, Fujian Province at 12:50 14 July, then moved to west, and there formed a northwest rain zone between 21°N and 28°N; Geami landed at Jinjiang, Fujian Province at 15:50 25 July, moved to west and there formed a southwestnortheast rain zone over Southeast China. Both brought severe meteorological disasters and life and wealth damages to the provinces on the way. As a whole, AREM forecasts of maximum winds around the typhoon center and the position, shape, moving direction, and intensity of typhoon rain belts are satisfactory, and the forecast for some strong rain centers are good, but the bias between fact and simulation are obvious for most strong rain centers. The predictions of the landing times and positions of the typhoons are good; the bias is small; and the predictions of the moving route also basically accord with the facts, but there also are some biases in the positions of the typhoon centers.

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公穎,李俊,廖移山,張兵. AREM模式對0604、0605號臺風的預報分析[J].氣象科技,2008,36(1):8~14

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  • 收稿日期:2006-09-04
  • 定稿日期:2007-11-05
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