武漢市盛夏高溫氣候特征和成因及預報
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湖北省科技攻關項目“城市防災減災應急氣象服務系統開發研究”(2006AA301B45)資助


Climatic Characteristics, Causes and Prediction of MidSummer HighTemperature in Wuhan
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    摘要:

    利用1950~2005年盛夏(7~8月)逐日武漢市最高溫度、2002年和2003年6~8月T213格點風和垂直速度資料,分析了武漢盛夏高溫的氣候特征,研究了高溫過程及西太平洋副熱帶高壓活動特點。分析結果表明:20世紀50年代末至60年代初、60年代中期、70年代后期、90年代和2000~2005年為高溫日數偏多的5個階段。80年代高溫日數偏少。對較大的時間尺度而言,強的高溫集中在50年代后期至60年代以及90年代后期至2005年。強高溫過程集中在7月下旬至8月上旬。西太平洋副熱帶高壓持續穩定控制長江中下游,是造成高溫及強高溫過程的主要環流系統。選用ECMWF和T213 溫度和緯向風場預報產品,應用灰色預測方法建立了武漢市盛夏日最高溫度預報模型,該模型試用于2003年和2006年盛夏高溫預報,檢驗結果表明該模型提供的高溫定量預報有一定的參考價值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily maximum temperature of midsummer (June to August) from 1950 to 2005, T213 grid wind data, and vertical velocity from June to August in the year of 2002 and 2003 in Wuhan, the climatic characteristics of midsummer high temperature, high mperature processes and characteristics of the western Pacific subtropical high activities are studied. The analysis results show that: there were five high temperature periods with the number of high temperature days being greater than normal: the late 1950s to early 1960s, the middle 1960s, the late 1970s, and the 1990s to the early and mid 2000s. The number of high temperature days was less than normal in the 1980s. To larger time scale, the hightemperature weather occurred in the periods from the late 1950s to 1960s and the late 1990s to the early 2000s. The severe high temperature processes occurred usually on the period from late July to the early August. The western Pacific Subtropical High was the main influencing weather system for high temperature and severe high temperature processes, which controlled the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River steadily. With the data of temperature prediction products and zonal winds from ECMWF and T213 products, a method of gray forecasting is proposed to build a forecast model of midsummer high temperature for Wuhan. The model was put to test in the midsummers of 2003 and 2006, and it is proved that it has a certain reference value in quantitative forecasting of high temperature.

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賀懿華,諶偉,李才媛,王麗,顧永剛.武漢市盛夏高溫氣候特征和成因及預報[J].氣象科技,2007,35(6):809~813

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  • 收稿日期:2007-01-12
  • 定稿日期:2007-05-31
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