CINRAD/SA雷達冰雹探測算法效果檢驗及參數本地化
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國家自然科學基金項目(40575012)、山東省氣象局科技創新項目(2004sdqxg01)共同資助


Performance Evaluation of Hail Detection with CIANRAD/SA Radar and Localization of Hail Parameters
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    摘要:

    2004年CINRAD/SA雷達新的冰雹探測算法(HDA)代替了原來的算法,新的冰雹探測算法(HDA)估測任意尺寸的冰雹概率(POH)、直徑大于等于19 mm的強冰雹概率(POSH)和最大冰雹直徑預測(MEHS)。結合濟南雷達探測資料對冰雹探測算法預測效果進行了檢驗,雖然有較高的探測準確率,但同時錯誤率較高,臨界成功率較低,最大冰雹尺寸預測值與實況的平均差值約為14.6 mm。對2002~2005年濟南雷達站的歷史資料進行了統計分析,降雹單體和非降雹單體在最大反射率因子上存在較大差異,5、6、7月的降雹單體最大反射率因子平均值分別為59.7、61.8、63.9 dBz,非降雹單體最大反射率因子平均值分別為53.8、54.9、55.6 dBz。依據統計數據,對冰雹探測算法中的反射率因子等門限值調整為53 dBz后,冰雹預測仍具有較高的探測準確率,錯誤率和臨界成功率得到了明顯改善;對最大冰雹尺寸預測中的算法因子門限值調整后,預測值與實況有較好的對應關系。

    Abstract:

    An enhanced hail detection algorithm (HDA) for the CINRAD/SA radar replaced the original hail algorithm in 2004. The new HDA can estimate the probability of hail (POH, any size), severe hail (diameter greater that 19 mm), and expected maximumsize hail for each detected storm cell. The performance of POH detection is evaluated with Jinan's CINRAD/SA data, using 50% as the warning threshold for the POH parameter, and the verification against hail observations of any size is conducted, and the following accuracy measures are obtained: POD (Probability Of Detection) is 100%, FAR (Falas Alarm Ratio) is 72.2%,CSI (Critical Success Index) is 88%. The expected maximum hail size is 14.6 mm bigger than the actual maximum hail size averagely. Using JinanCINRAD/SA data of 2001 to 2005, the distributive characteristics of the maximum reflectivity in the cases of convective clouds are analyzed. The maximum reflectivities are 59.7, 61.8, 63.9 dBz for hailstorms and 53.8, 54.9, 55.6 dBz for nonhail storms in May, June and July, respectively. So the minimum and maximum reflectivities of a component used in the calculation of the probability of hail are modulated from 45 to 53 dBz, and FAR and CSI are improved obviously. Through adjusting three parameters computing the expected maximum hail size, the expected maximum hail size is close to the actual one.

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刁秀廣,黃秀韶,任鐘冬,楊傳鳳,劉志紅,耿力,朱君鑒. CINRAD/SA雷達冰雹探測算法效果檢驗及參數本地化[J].氣象科技,2007,35(5):727~731

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  • 收稿日期:2006-08-07
  • 定稿日期:2006-11-28
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