冬春亞洲大氣環流與華北中部夏季降水的相關分析
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國家科技部社會公益類項目2002DIB20067、天津市科技發展計劃項目 06YFSDSF04500共同資助


Correlation Analysis of General Atmospheric Circulation in Winter and Spring in Asian and Summer Precipitation in Central North China
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    摘要:

    利用1957~2002年的NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa再分析資料以及同期華北地區夏季降水資料,分析了華北中部夏季降水與前期環流的關系。結果表明:夏季華北中部降水的多少與冬季東亞槽強弱、春季巴爾喀什湖到貝加爾湖的蒙古高原地區高度場呈顯著相關。20世紀80年代中期以前冬季東亞槽偏強、春季蒙古高原地區高度值偏低;80年代中期之后冬季東亞槽開始轉弱、春季蒙古高原地區高度值偏高。這與華北夏季降水的演變趨勢相對應。說明冬季東亞槽的減弱以及春季蒙古高原地區高度值偏高是近年來華北夏季降水減少的原因之一。冬季東亞槽強對應夏季西太平洋副高在日本海地區高度呈偏強趨勢,有利華北中部夏季降水偏多;春季蒙古高原地區高度值偏高有利于華北夏季出現西高東低形勢,華北中部夏季降水易偏少。

    Abstract:

    An analysis is made of the relation between summer precipitation and antecedent circulation by using NCAR/NCEP 500hPa reanalysis data and summer precipitation data from central North China from 1957 to 2002. The results show that there is obvious correlation between summer precipitation, the intensity of winter East Asian Trough and the spring height field over the Mongolia Plateau from Balkhash to Baikal. Winter East Asian Trough was stronger and the height over the Mongolia Plateau in spring was lower than normal before the middle 1980s, but vice versa after 1985. The trend is consistent with the variation of summer precipitation. It is demonstrated that the reasons for summer precipitation decrease include the weakened winter East Asian Trough and higher spring Mongolia Plateau height field. When the winter East Asian Trough is strong, the summer West Pacific Subtropical High is strong over the Japan sea region correspondingly, which is favorable for the increase of summer precipitation over the central North China. When the heights of the spring Mongolia Plateau height field are higher, it is favorable for the occurrence of the circulation pattern “high in the west and low in the east," in which lessthannormal summer precipitation in central North China is likely to happen.

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段麗瑤,梁平德,榮艷淑.冬春亞洲大氣環流與華北中部夏季降水的相關分析[J].氣象科技,2007,35(5):651~654

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  • 收稿日期:2006-10-10
  • 定稿日期:2007-02-25
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