臨沂中尺度數值預報系統及應用
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山東省氣象局重點科研課題項目2004SDQXZ2004資助


Linyi Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System and Its Application
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    摘要:

    介紹了臨沂中尺度數值預報系統及預報產品的釋用和模式系統應用雷達資料情況,并對2005年6~10月的業務運行結果進行了檢驗,對小雨和中雨預報效果較好,TS評分較高,對夜間溫度預報平均值絕對誤差在1.52~2.52 ℃之間,平均均方根誤差在2.01~2.93 ℃之間。該系統降水預報質量較高,氣溫預報誤差小,準確率高,對定時、定點、定量的精細化預報具有較高的參考價值。應用自主開發的SDAF軟件包,對系統的預報產品進行釋用,研制了暴雨、空氣質量、極端氣溫、干熱風等預報方法。將多普勒雷達回波強度加入模式,改變模式水汽場,明顯改進了預報。對徑向速度反演降水系統內部風場進入中尺度模式進行了初步試驗,得出了一些有益結論。

    Abstract:

    The characteristics of the mesoscale numerical forecasting system developed by the Linyi Meteorological Bureau, the interpretation of the model forecast products, and the application of radar data in the model system are introduced. The evaluation of forecasting results was conducted from June to October 2005. The system displays considerable capability in shortrange weather forecast for predicting precipitation and temperature. The system is considered to be valuable for improving the quantification, timeliness, and accuracy of weather forecasting. By using the selfdeveloped SDAF software package in the application of forecasting products, the methods for forecasting heavy rainfall, air quality, extreme temperature, dryhot winds, etc. are generated. The Doppler radar echo intensity is used to modify the humidity field in numerical model, and the forecasting results are improved obviously. The primary experiments on the retrieval of the wind vector fields from the Doppler radial velocity to modify the initial forecast fields are carried out, and some conclusions are obtained.

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裴洪芹,邰慶國,吳君,張京英,王慶華.臨沂中尺度數值預報系統及應用[J].氣象科技,2007,35(4):464~469

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  • 收稿日期:2006-04-05
  • 定稿日期:2006-12-27
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