三江源地區春夏季降水與太平洋海溫的關系
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國家自然科學基金項目“全球氣候變化對三江源地區水資源的影響研究”(40465002)和“青海湖地區的氣候-構造歷史與青藏高原隆升生長及全球變化的聯系”(40599424)共同資助


Relationship between Spring and Summer Rainfall in ThreeRiver Source Region and Pacific SST
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    摘要:

    從預測三江源地區春季、夏季降水趨勢的需要出發,利用聚類分析法將三江源地區春、夏季降水場分為3個區域。通過對3個區春、夏季降水指數與前期太平洋海溫相關普查,定義了與3個區春、夏季降水指數相關的海溫分布型指數。冬季西太平洋海溫偏低(偏高),赤道中、東部太平洋海溫偏高(偏低)的海溫分布型造成三江源1區、3區春季降水減少(增加);冬季赤道太平洋中部、加利福尼亞海域海溫偏高(偏低)的海溫分布型造成2區、3區夏季降水減少(增加)。對冬季太平洋海溫分布型與后期春、夏季500 hPa北半球高度場的相關分析結果表明:當冬季西太平洋海溫綜合指數高(低)時, 春季高度場印度高壓、中西伯利亞槽及阿留申低槽加強(減弱),三江源地區春季降水偏少(偏多);而當冬季太平洋中部、加利福尼亞海域海溫綜合指數高(低)時,夏季高度場伊朗高壓、中西伯利亞高脊加強(減弱)及西太平洋副高位置偏南(偏北),夏季降水偏少(偏多)。

    Abstract:

    The clustering analysis method is employed to divide the rainfall field in spring and summer over the ThreeRiver Source region into three areas for predicting the rainfall distribution and rainfall trends for different areas. Based on the correlation relationship of the spring and summer rainfall indexes in the three areas with the Pacific SST in the preceding season, the SST distribution index is defined. When the winter SST over the western Pacific is lower (higher) than normal, the higher (lower) than normal SST distribution in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is correlated with the decreased (increased) spring rainfall in Areas 1 and 3 of the ThreeRiver Source Region; while the higher (lower) than normal winter SST distribution in the central equatorial Pacific and off the coast of California is correlated with the decreased (increased) summer rainfall in Areas 2 and 3 of the ThreeRiver Source region. Further analyses are conducted of the correlation relationship between the winter SST in Pacific and the spring and summer 500 hPa geopotential height field in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that when the overall winter Pacific SST index is high (low), the Indian high pressure system, central Siberia trough and Aleutian trough at 500 hPa in spring strengthen (weaken) with increased (decreased) spring rainfall in the ThreeRiver Source region. In contrast, when the overall winter SST index in the central Pacific and off the coast of California is high (low), the Iranian high pressure system and central Siberia ridge in summer strengthen (weaken) with the southward (northward) displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high and decreased (increased) summer rainfall in the ThreeRiver Source region.

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劉青春,秦寧生,靳力亞,時興合,馮蜀青.三江源地區春夏季降水與太平洋海溫的關系[J].氣象科技,2007,35(3):335~339

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  • 收稿日期:2006-03-06
  • 定稿日期:2006-04-14
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