GRAPES與MM5模式對重慶特大暴雨的模擬預報對比分析
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重慶市氣象局基金項目“重大現代化建設”資助


Simulation and Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Case in Chongqing with GRAPES and MM5
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    摘要:

    利用中國氣象局的中尺度模式GRAPES和美國國家大氣研究中心的MM5模式,對2004年9月初發生在重慶地區的特大暴雨過程進行了模擬預報。結果表明,GRAPES和MM5模式都較成功的預報出了此次降水過程。但是在降水中心的分布以及降水量級上與實況仍有一定程度的差異,GRAPES模式模擬出的總體落區略優于MM5,而MM5對降水量級的預報好于GRAPES。通過對環流形勢的分析發現,MM5預報的垂直速度大于GRAPES的預報結果,這可能是導致降水量級差別的原因之一;通過對模式結果的初步診斷分析發現,兩個模式對不穩定

    Abstract:

    GRAPES and MM5 models are used to simulate and predict the heavy rainfall process in Chongqing in September 2004. The result shows that both models can predict the rainfall development successfully, but there are certain differences between observation and simulated center location and magnitude of rainfall. The rainfall spatial distribution simulated by GRAPES is better than that simulated by MM5. However, the maximum values of the precipitation center are much less than the results of MM5. It is noted that the vertical velocity simulated by MM5 is higher than that simulated by GRAPES through analysis of the general circulation, which may cause the difference in the rainfall magnitude. Through the preliminary diagnostic analysis of simulation, it can be found that the simulation for conditional instability has impact on the spatial distribution prediction for both models.

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韓余,周國兵,向鳴. GRAPES與MM5模式對重慶特大暴雨的模擬預報對比分析[J].氣象科技,2007,35(2):180~186

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  • 收稿日期:2005-10-14
  • 定稿日期:2006-04-01
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