浙江盛夏降溫用電負荷評估模型研究
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P457

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Evaluation Model of Electricity Loads in Midsummer in Zhejiang Province
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    摘要:

    運用相關分析、回歸分析、方差分析、REOF等方法,對浙江盛夏的氣溫與用電負荷的關系進行了分析,建立了降溫用電負荷評估模型,還分析了浙江盛夏降溫耗能(降溫度日數)的分布和長期變化特征。結果表明。浙江盛夏的日平均氣溫與日平均用電負荷、日最高氣溫與日最大負荷存在顯著的正相關,以此為基礎建立的降溫負荷評估方程具有較高的擬合度;50年來,浙江盛夏降溫耗能(降溫度日數)年際波動大,浙北區降溫度日數略呈下降趨勢,浙西南區呈明顯下降趨勢,而浙沿海區則呈明顯上升趨勢。

    Abstract:

    The relationship between temperature in midsummer and electrical loads in Zhejiang Province is analyzed by means of REOF,regression analysis,correlation analysis,etc.The evaluation model of electricity loads in midsummer is built.The cooling degree days are used as the index to estimate energy consumption for cooling in midsummer.The spatial distribution and the long-term variation features of cooling energy consumption in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.The main results are:(1) There is distinct positive correlation between daily mean temperature and daily mean power load and between daily maximum temperature and daily maximum(power) load.The evaluation equations built on the basis of this theory fit the real electrical loads for cooling well.(2) The cooling energy consumption(cooling degree days) in Zhejiang Province in midsummer fluctuated greatly in the last 50 years.The cooling degree days show a slight downtrend in the northern Zhejiang Province,an obvious downtrend in the southwestern part,and an obvious uptrend in the coastal area.

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陳海燕 周劍波 駱月珍 胡波.浙江盛夏降溫用電負荷評估模型研究[J].氣象科技,2006,34(6):758~762

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  • 收稿日期:2005-11-07
  • 定稿日期:2006-03-15
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