生物氣象預報的生態動力學基礎
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P45

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Ecological-Dynamic Basis of Biometeorological Forecasting
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    摘要:

    生物氣象預報同公用天氣預報有著密切關聯。根據國內外物候學、數值天氣預報、模式識別自動化技術和生態動力學進展趨勢,從生態動力學出發評述了生物氣象預報進展、生物氣象預報的理論和方法及生物氣象預報所涉及范圍與生態動力學的關系,指出高新技術化的生態動力學是生物氣象預報從定性發展到定量、從單站發展到區域的預測網絡的基礎,就生物氣象預報研究、業務化和人才培養等問題,提出了一些個人看法,并展望了發展前景及其在可持續發展、生態環境改善等方面的作用。

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    Biometeorolocical forecasting is closely related to public weather forecasting.The ecological-dynamic basis of biometeorological forecasting is described on the basis of operational practice,applied researches,the related references and experts' experiences.The advancements,theories and methods,and research scope of biometeorological forecasting,as well as the relation with ecological dynamics,are reviewed.It is pointed out that the introduction of high-new technology into ecological dynamics is the foundation for the development of biometeorological forecasting from qualitative to quantitative forecasting and from single station to regional network.Some suggestions on the operationization and specialist training for biometeorological forecasting are presented.Discussion is also made on the prospects of biometeorological forecasting and its importance for the sustainable development of the national economy and the ecological environment.

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姜曉艷.生物氣象預報的生態動力學基礎[J].氣象科技,2006,34(6):698~704

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  • 收稿日期:2006-03-24
  • 定稿日期:2006-07-24
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