山東省冬夏季氣溫異常的季風特征
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P423.3

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山東省氣象局“山東冬夏季氣溫異常成因分析”科研項目資助


Monsoon Characteristics of Air Temperature Abnormity in Winter and Summer in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用山東省80個代表站1961~2003年月平均氣溫資料和同期NCAR/NCEP再分析資料,運用統計學方法,分析了季風背景下冬、夏季氣溫異常的年際、年代際變化和周期特征及變溫的空間分布,并研究了東亞冬、夏季風對氣溫變化的影響。結果表明,冬夏季氣溫變化趨勢明顯不同,冬季增溫趨勢顯著,夏季無明顯增溫趨勢;2~6年的周期振蕩在不同時期通過了0.05信度檢驗,小波分析2004年夏季氣溫不會偏高推斷得到證實。冬、夏季氣候具有明顯的季風特征,季風與氣溫關系密切,即強(弱)冬季風山東易冷(暖)冬;強(弱)夏季風,易暖(冷)夏。冬季風比夏季風對同期氣溫作用更顯著。季風的隔季相關性質對氣溫的變化有一定影響。

    Abstract:

    By using monthly air temperature data from eighty meteorological stations in Shandong Province and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on general circulation from 1961 to 2003,the features of the variation,linear trend,and spacial distribution of air temperature abnormality in winter and summer,as well as the relation between monsoon and air temperature,are analyzed.The results show that the changing trends are distinctly different between winter and summer.There is a remarkable increasing trend in winter,but there is no obvious change in summer.The 2-6 year oscillation periods are passed the 0.05 level test in different time periods.The wavelet analysis confirms that the summer temperature is lower in 2004.The effect of East Asia monsoon on temperature is significant.When the winter(summer) monsoon intensity strengthens(weakens),the air temperature is lower(higher).However,the effect of the winter monsoon on winter temperature is more obvious than that of summer monsoon on summer temperature.The correlation between summer and winter monsoon has positive influence on air temperature variation.

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于群 李長軍 周發琇.山東省冬夏季氣溫異常的季風特征[J].氣象科技,2006,34(5):547~552

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  • 收稿日期:2005-04-27
  • 定稿日期:2005-06-22
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