東北夏季降水的氣候及異常特征分析
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P457.6 P315.7

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科技部農業科技成果轉化資金項目“遼寧省重大農業氣候災害預測技術推廣應用”(04EFN217400411)資助


Analysis of Climate and Anomaly Features of Summer Precipitation in Northeast China
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    摘要:

    采用統計分析的方法對近50a東北夏季降水的氣候及異常特征進行了分析。結果表明:東北夏季降水空間分布很不均勻,除三江平原地區外東北大部7月降水最多;夏季全區出現較重干旱的概率大于較重雨澇,旱災更為突出,其中遼西是較重旱澇頻發的地區;近50a夏季降水沒有明顯變干或變濕的傾向,而是具有階段性旱澇交替特征,存在27、11a左右的年代際尺度周期和3~6a左右的年際尺度周期變化;6月旱災幾率大,易形成6~7月的連續干旱,7月易形成區域性特大澇災,6月和8月在年代際尺度上具有反位相變化的特征。

    Abstract:

    Statistic methods are used to analyze the climate and anomaly characteristics of summer precipitation in Northeast China in recent 50 years.Results indicate that precipitation is unevenly distributed.Rains occurs mostly in July over most parts of Northeast China except the Sanjiang Plain.The occurrence probability of severe droughts is greater than that of severe floods,which indicates that drought disasters are more frequent than floods.Floods/droughts occur more frequently in the west part of Liaoning Province than in the other regions of Northeast China.Generally speaking,the wet/dry trend isn't obvious in recent 50 years,but there exists the alternative flood/drought variation feature with the interdecadal periods being about 27 and 11 years and the interannual periods being 3 to 6 years.Droughts occur more frequently in June;there often occur persistent droughts from June to July,and the regional severe floods are usually reported in July.Th opposite phase is found in the interdecadal scale variation between June and August.

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龔強 汪宏宇 王盤興.東北夏季降水的氣候及異常特征分析[J].氣象科技,2006,34(4):387~393

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  • 收稿日期:2005-04-06
  • 定稿日期:2005-06-23
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