海氣相互作用與湖北大澇的關系分析
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P732.6 P732

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武漢氣象中心科研基金資助


Relationship between Waterlogging over Hubei Province and Air-Sea Interaction
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    摘要:

    利用1951~1994年北太平洋海溫、副熱帶高壓環流特征量、湖北大澇資料,通過對北太平洋海溫場和副熱帶高壓(以下簡稱副高)的特征指數與湖北大澇的相關普查,發現幾個關鍵區域的海溫異常分布與湖北大澇有密切關系;特別春季和初夏的副高異常分布是影響湖北大澇的主要因素;海溫和副高兩者之間的異常變化密切關聯;海溫異常變化早于副高異常變化約1~3個月.利用統計預報方法分別建立了利用海溫因子、副高環流特征量因子預報湖北大澇的模型,并在汛期進行了試驗.驗證表明:湖北大澇與海氣相互作用密切相關,北太平洋海溫異常引起副高異常,副高異常導致湖北大澇的出現.

    Abstract:

    Using the data of North Pacific SST,subtropical high characteristic indices and deluges in Hubei Province from 1951 to 1994,a detailed investigation is made on the relationship between deluges in Hubei Province and North Pacific SST,and subtropical high characteristic indices.The results show that there is close relationship between the abnormality of SST in several key regions and deluges.Especially the abnormal distribution of subtropical high in spring and early summer is the main factor influencing deluges in Hubei Province.Besides,the abnormal changes of SST and subtropical high are closely connected: the former is about 1 to 3 months earlier than the latter.Using the statistic analysis method,the models are established by using sea temperature and subtropical high characteristic factors respectively to predict heavy waterlogging over Hubei.The models were put to trial use in Hubei flood season.The result indicates that the heavy waterlogging in Hubei has close relation with air-sea interaction.The abnormality of the sea temperature over the North Pacific Ocean resulted in the abnormality of subtropical high,which caused heavy waterlogging over Hubei.

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張書俊.海氣相互作用與湖北大澇的關系分析[J].氣象科技,2006,34(3):260~265

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  • 收稿日期:2005-02-16
  • 定稿日期:2005-08-08
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