精細化MOS相對濕度預報方法研究
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P456.7 P457

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中國氣象局課題“中尺度數值預報模式和預報產品釋用技術在寧夏新一代天氣預報業務技術中的推廣應用”資助


Fine MOS Forecasting Method of Relative Humidity
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    摘要:

    利用2003年5~9月MM5模式每隔1 h的站點基本要素預報場和物理量診斷場資料,以及相應時段內寧夏25個測站的相對濕度自記觀測資料,同時采用多元線性和逐步回歸2種MOS統計方法,預報寧夏25個測站5~9月48 h逐時相對濕度.對2004年夏季6~8月預報效果檢驗表明:MOS方法制作寧夏48 h逐時相對濕度預報結果是可用的或是可參考的;2種MOS統計方法預報結果相近,逐步回歸方法比多元線性方法預報效果稍好,08:00預報誤差明顯低于20:00;當天氣形勢變化較平穩時,MOS預報結果穩定,平均絕對誤差控制在10%左右;當有明顯的變溫等特殊天氣時,誤差變率起伏波動大,預報結果不穩定.

    Abstract:

    By means of the hour-to-hour MM5-predicted basic element fields and physical-quantity diagnostic fields,as well as the recording humidity data of 25 stations over Ningxia Autonomous Region from May to September 2003,predictions are made of the 48-hour hour-to-hour relative humidity of 25 stations in Ningxia from May to September using the multiple linear and successive regression MOS methods.Verification of the forecasts is conducted for summer(June to August) 2004.The results indicate that to make the 48-hour hour-to-hour relative humidity forecast by means of the two MOS methods is feasible,and the results are of reference significance.The forecasts resulted from the two methods are very close;the one from successive regression is slightly better than that from multiple linear.The forecast error is obviously lower at 08:00 than that at 20:00.The MOS-predicted results are stable while the weather situation is stable with a mean absolute error of about 10%;the forecast error fluctuates greatly while there are obvious weather changes such as temperature change.

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陳豫英 陳曉光 馬篩艷 馬金仁 丁建軍.精細化MOS相對濕度預報方法研究[J].氣象科技,2006,34(2):143~146

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  • 收稿日期:2004-11-23
  • 定稿日期:2005-03-04
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