登陸臺風短時定量降水預報方法初探
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

P458.124 P457.6

基金項目:

“上海臺風研究基金項目(2003ST005),上海市氣象局科研開發項目(0301),科技部社會公益項目(2005DIB3J104)共同資助”


Preliminary Study of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Method for Landfalling Typhoon
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    利用登陸臺風的GMS-5 IR1 TBB資料及地面自動站逐時雨量資料,初步建立了適用于登陸臺風的定量降水估計(QPE)方法,基于QPE結果,采用外推法,初步實現了對登陸臺風未來0~3 h的短時定量降水預報(QPF).應用于0104號登陸臺風“尤特”和0414號登陸臺風“云娜”兩個例表明:對單站逐小時雨量定量預報而言,如果50%相對誤差可以接受,0、1、2、3 h的QPF準確率分別達20%~70%、30%~80%、30%~70%、20%~60%;對于單站過程雨量定量預報而言,如果50%相對誤差可以接受,0、1、2、3 h的QPF準確率基本都達60%~80%;對未來0~3 h的面雨量也具有一定定量預報能力.0~3 h QPF結果對實際短時登陸臺風降水業務預報工作具有一定的參考價值.

    Abstract:

    By using GMS-5 IR1 TBB of landfalling typhoon(LT) and hourly rainfall from ground automatic weather stations,a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) suitable for LT was found.Based on the results from the QPE method,the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast of 0 h to 3 h(QPF) for LT can be realized with the extrapolation method preliminarily.The applications of the QPF method to 0104 LT Utor and 0414 LT Rananim show that as far as single station hourly rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0 h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can reach 20% to 70%,30% to 80%,30% to 70%,and 20% to 60%,respectively;as far as single station process rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can all almost reach 60% to 80%;quantitative forecast for 0 h to 3 h area rainfall can also be provided,to a certain extent.The QPF results of 0 to 3 hours can serve as a reference for the operational short-term operational precipitation forecast for LT,to some degree.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

岳彩軍,陳佩燕,雷小途,楊玉華.登陸臺風短時定量降水預報方法初探[J].氣象科技,2006,34(1):7~11

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 定稿日期:2004-12-13
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期:
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>