南京市呼吸道疾病時間序列模型的建立與分析
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P423.31 S858.316.3

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國家自然科學基金課題(30370830)資助


Establishment and Analysis of Time Serial Models for Respiratory Diseases
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    摘要:

    利用1990~2000年南京市支氣管哮喘與感冒逐月就診人數病例資料和同期國家氣象中心資料室的月平均壓、溫、濕等資料,討論了2種疾病發病人數的月際和年際變化規律,分別建立了包含氣象因子的預報2種疾病逐月就診人數的條件異方差和動態回歸模型。南京地區支氣管哮喘就診人數高峰期出現在春末與秋季,逐年的就診人數呈現上升趨勢,其發病與當月月平均氣壓、上一個月月平均溫度有關。感冒就診人數高峰期出現在夏秋季,其發病與月平均最低溫度和月極端最低溫度有關。將模型應用于2種疾病逐月就診人數的等級預報中,其預報等級準確率分別達75.0%和66.7%,表明此建模方案是可行的,此類模型有一定的使用價值。

    Abstract:

    By use of the month-by-month hospital admissions caused by asthma and the influenza and month-mean pressure,temperature,and humidity data in Nanjing,the occurrence regularities of the two diseases were discussed.Two time serial models including meteorological factors were established to predict the number of patients on a monthly basis.Results show that in the recent 10 years,hospital admissions caused by asthma increased year after year and asthma is prone to occur at autumn and the end of spring.The occurrence of asthma is correlated with the mean pressure of the same month and the mean temperature of previous month.However,the influenza is more likely to occur in summer and autumn and its occurrence is related to the month mean minimum temperature and the month's lowest temperature.The conditional heteroskedasticity model and ARIMAX model were established to predict the number of patients caused by asthma and influenza,respectively.The prediction veracities for asthma and influenza are 75.5 percent and 66.7 percent,respectively,which indicates that the methods are feasible and applicable in application.

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米娜 談建國 姚克敏 關宏強.南京市呼吸道疾病時間序列模型的建立與分析[J].氣象科技,2005,33(6):554~558

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  • 收稿日期:2004-11-25
  • 定稿日期:2005-03-20
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