層狀云人工增雨宏觀判據在MICAPS平臺上的演示與應用
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P456.7 P426.61

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河北省“十五”重點科技攻關項目“火箭人工增雨作業條件與關鍵技術研究”(03220602D)資助


Display on MICAPS Platform and Application of Macro-Criterions for Rain Enhancement in Stratiform Clouds
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    摘要:

    針對地市級普遍缺乏可業務應用的人工增雨潛力實時分析及預測系統的情況,以常規探空資料和T213數值預報產品為基礎資料,開發了幾種人工增雨宏觀診斷場,并實現了這些診斷場的定時自動處理和在MICAPS平臺上的實時分析顯示.其中,冰面過飽和度可診斷“冰水轉化區”的垂直分布,進而為確定合適的播撒高度提供判據.T-Td垂直分布可反映準飽和濕層伸展的高度和厚度,其頂部為合適的播撒高度;特征溫度層高度可提供"播云溫度窗區"的高度和厚度,也可為進一步確定播撒高度提供判據.幾種方法綜合應用可確定最佳播撒高度.增雨潛力系數與降水的演變趨勢很一致,可為選擇合適的作業時機提供參考.以一次典型過程為例,對上述方法做了試用.為了定量確定人工增雨潛力的大小,綜合考慮了各種物理量(要素)場對降水的貢獻以及降水預報對宏觀增雨潛力的指示意義,應用多因子權重集成法,制作人工增雨潛力等級預報,并用2004年2~5月7次層狀云降水過程進行實例應用檢驗,證明具有一定效果.

    Abstract:

    Based on observation data and NWP products,some diagnosis fields for rain enhancement were worked out and the real-time automatic display on MICAPS platform was realized.The supersaturation with respect to ice can be used to diagnose the vertical distribution of ice-water conversion area,then determine the seeding height.The vertical disposition of T-T_d can show the altitude and depth of the quasi-saturation layer,the top of which was the suitable seeding position.The height of the characteristic temperature layer can be used to determine the altitude and thickness of "seeding temperature window," a seeding position criterion.The optimal seeding altitude can be determined by synthesizing above methods.The trend of rainfall enhancement potential coefficient was identical with that of rainfall,which can provide reference for choosing appropriate seeding time.The above-mentioned methods were applied during a typical rain case. In the weighted integrating manner,several environmental physical fields and rainfall forecast were synthesized,and the graded forecast of rain enhancement potential was made.The verification was conducted by seven stratiform-cloud rain cases occurred from February to May 2004.The results show that the method is encouraging.

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連志鸞 邢開成.層狀云人工增雨宏觀判據在MICAPS平臺上的演示與應用[J].氣象科技,2005,33(5):445~450

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  • 收稿日期:2004-06-20
  • 定稿日期:2004-10-20
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