晚稻單產動態預測方法研究
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P641.74 S511.33

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國家發展與改革委員會業務建設項目“農業氣象預報系統續建”項目資助


A Method for Dynamically Predicting Late Rice Yields
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    摘要:

    晚稻單產與氣象條件關系分析表明:氣象要素是影響相鄰兩年晚稻單產變化的主要影響因素,尤其是氣溫和日照.根據業務服務的需要,提出利用晚稻主產省份的產量資料和代表站的旬平均氣溫、旬降水量和旬日照時數等氣象資料,運用綜合聚類原理,建立全國晚稻產量動態預報方法.此方法能夠在晚稻播種一段時間后動態預測晚稻單產,具有簡便、實用、準確率較高的特點,并且克服了常用回歸方法在較短時間內篩選預測因子難的缺點,有一定的業務應用價值.

    Abstract:

    The study of the relationship between weather conditions and the unit yield of late rice shows that weather factors, especially air temperature and sunshine, are essential to the unit yield change of late rice for two years in succession. According to the needs of operational service, a method of forecasting dynamically the trends of the late rice yield for the whole country is presented, based on the theory of synthesize cluster analysis and such data as the late rice unit yields of the main planting provinces in China, average air temperature and ten-day sunshine duration. The method can be used to dynamically predict the unit yield of late rice after having sowed for some time, being simple and practical and having high accuracy. It is difficult to screen out the predicting factors within a short time by using the common regression method; therefore, this method is of better value in operational application.

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楊霏云 王建林.晚稻單產動態預測方法研究[J].氣象科技,2005,33(5):433~436

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  • 收稿日期:2004-09-13
  • 定稿日期:2004-11-15
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