單站暴雨客觀預報的一種適用模型
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P458.121.1 TN971.1

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福建省科技廳“福建省中尺度災害性天氣預警系統在防洪抗旱中應用研究”課題資助


Single Station Objective Forecast Model of Torrential Rainfall
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    摘要:

    采用滑動分區車貝雪夫多項式展開模型,研制福建省建陽市單站5~6月暴雨客觀預報模型,以提高單站暴雨預報能力。模型取得了較好的結果:客觀預報模型因子結構簡單而天氣學意義明了,具有預報準確率較高、穩定性好。各預報模型的三層形勢特征都能體現出有利于暴雨生成的合理垂直配置。在2000~2002年的試用中,準確率平均比主觀預報高出50%,且無漏報。在2003年的試用中無空報也無漏報。這表明該技術模型是一種能夠有效提高單站暴雨客觀預報能力和效果的適用模型。

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    By means of the sliding-window Chebyshev expansion technique, the objective forecast model (OFM) of heavy rainfall from May to June in the Jianyan station was developed in order to improve the capability of single-station rainfall forecasting. The results show that the objective forecast factors have clear meteorological meaning though simple and the advantages of high prediction accuracy and good stability; the characteristics of the weather patterns at three levels for various models exhibit the reasonable vertical collocations favorable to rainfall process development. The trial use in 2000 and 2002 indicates that the average accuracy of rainfall prediction of OFM is about 50% higher than that of the subjective, and there is no failure in 3 years, especially no miss and failure in 2003. It is indicated that the model is efficient and applicable for the improvement of single station rainfall prediction.

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黃永玉 謝水蘭 李霖.單站暴雨客觀預報的一種適用模型[J].氣象科技,2005,33(3):204~208

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  • 定稿日期:2004-04-05
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