人工增雨效果的數值統計評估方法
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P48 P456.7

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河南省重大科技攻關項目“人工影響天氣優化技術研究”資助


Numerical-Statistical Method for Precipitation Enhancement Effectiveness Evaluation
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    摘要:

    利用1995~2001年河南省春季降水資料,采用數值預報與統計相結合的方法,對飛機人工增雨的效果進行檢驗。該方法的基本思路是根據降水的氣候特征設定增雨效果的評估區,在同一評估區內應用數值模式MM5V3對歷史降水過程的降水量進行數值預報,從而獲得一組預報雨量,對非增雨過程的數值預報雨量與降水實況進行統計分析,建立預報雨量與實況雨量的數理統計關系。對增雨作業過程的降水同樣采用相同的數值模式進行預測,并與增雨后的實況雨量比較,從而得到飛機人工增雨效果。評估結果表明:1995~2001年春季飛機人工增雨效果比較明顯,豫北區(Ⅰ區)平均為16.7%,豫東區(Ⅱ區)平均為19.3%。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of precipitation in spring from 1995 to 2001 in Henan, a new method was developed combining numerical prediction and statistical analysis techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of precipitation enhancement by airplane seeding. The basic idea is that the numerical forecasts for historical raining processes were formulated and a series of precipitation forecasts were obtained in terms of the MM5 V3 numerical model in the same evaluation area, which was partitioned based on the climatic rainfall characteristics. The statistical equations between precipitation forecasts for non-seeding precipitation processes and observed precipitation were established. The rainfall of the seeded precipitation processes was predicted with the above model and compared with the observation. The effectiveness of precipitation enhancement was finally gained. The results show that the average effectiveness of precipitation enhancement in spring from 1995 to 2001 is 16.7% in the northern Henan and 19.3% in the eastern Henan, respectively.

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胡鵬 谷湘潛 冶林茂 董官臣.人工增雨效果的數值統計評估方法[J].氣象科技,2005,33(2):189~192

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  • 定稿日期:2004-08-02
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