CAPPS1和CAPPS2數值預報模式對比分析
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Contrast Between CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 Numerical Prediction Models
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    摘要:

    對CAPPS1模式和CAPPS2模式預報廣西污染物進行了對比分析。主要對比了其污染擴散原理、氣象預報模式、操作系統、運行時間、預報時效及預報效果。分析表明:CAPPS1和CAPPS2模式對各種污染物預報的相關系數均在0.44以上,兩種模式預報廣西空氣污染都是可行的;兩種模式均對SO2的預報效果最好,NO2次之,PM10相對最差;CAPPS2模式對各種污染物的預報值與實測值相關系數均比CAPPS1高,其中NO2的相關系數提高幅度最大;CAPPS2模式對NO2和PM10的預報準確率比CAPPS1偏高,而對SO2的預報準確率比CAPPS1偏低;CAPPS2預報首要污染物正確率比CAPPS1高出11個百分點,而預報首要污染物等級正確率則高出9個百分點。

    Abstract:

    A contrast analysis of CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 prediction models for Guang Xi air quality was conducted, including their pollutant diffusion theories, weather forecasting models, operating systems, run time, and valid time. It is concluded that both CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 models have a correlation coefficient of over 0 44 for all kinds of pollutants, and both models are applicable to air quality forecasts in Guang Xi and have the best prediction precision on SO 2, the second on NO 2 , while PM10 prediction is relatively worse. CAPPS2 has higher correlation coefficients for all pollutants than CAPPS1 with the highest on NO 2. In contrast to CAPPS1, CAPPS2 has higher prediction precision on NO 2 and PM10 and lower prediction precision on SO 2. The prediction precision of CAPPS2 on chief pollutant is 11 percent higher than those of CAPPS1, and 9 percent higher for grade prediction.

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李雄. CAPPS1和CAPPS2數值預報模式對比分析[J].氣象科技,2004,32(6):414~416424

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