近10年上海盛夏高溫及熱島強度變化趨勢
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P423 F323.8

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Trend Analysis of Midsummer High Temperature and Urban Heat Island Effect in Shanghai over Past 10 Years
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    摘要:

    對上海地區11個觀測站的近10年的7月最高氣溫觀測資料進行分析發現:(1)2003年7月,上海城區和郊區的最高氣溫均突破過去30年的極值,但2003年的熱島效應強度卻并不是近30年來最高的一年;(2)過去10年的觀測資料表明,郊區平均最高氣溫變化不大,上海城區的平均最高氣溫則呈明顯的上升趨勢,這表明城區環境變化所導致的熱島效應是城區氣溫逐年升高的主要原因;(3)熱島效應強度年際變化存在猛增階段和平穩升高的階段,這種變化主要由人為因素所致,平穩增加的階段熱島效應強度的波動與區域氣溫的波動呈正相關;(4)未來幾年,上海的熱島效應強度仍將緩慢增加,但上海市政府合理的城市發展規劃可使這一增加趨勢減緩,最終達到一個平穩的強度。

    Abstract:

    After carefully analyzing of high temperature in July from 11 stations in Shanghai in the past 10 years, it is founded: (1) July 2003 is the hottest in recent 30 years with the maximum temperatures breaking the 30-years record both in urban and rural areas but the Intensity of Heat Island Effect (IHIE) was not the highest compared with the records of the past 30 years. (2) The suburban average maximum temperature changed slightly in the past 10 years while the average maximum temperature in the urban area went up distinctly. It indicates that the heat island effect resulted from environment exchanges is the main cause of the recent urban temperature increase. (3) The inter-annual variation of IHIE has a rapid period and a smooth period, which was caused by various human activities. The change of IHIE has a positive correlation with the regional temperature fluctuation. (4) IHIE in Shanghai will still increase slowly in the coming years, but if the Shanghai Municipal Government has a reasonable city development plan, the temperature increase will be slow down gradually, and IHIE in Shanghai will become stable finally.

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漆梁波.近10年上海盛夏高溫及熱島強度變化趨勢[J].氣象科技,2004,32(6):433~437

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  • 定稿日期:2004-03-29
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