熱帶氣旋的路徑及登陸預報
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P457.8

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Track and Landfall Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones
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    摘要:

    用幾個非線性數學模型制作熱帶氣旋短期路徑預報及熱帶氣旋個數、登陸時段、地段的短期氣候預報。5年多的研究和預報試驗結果表明:用指數曲線模型制作熱帶氣旋路徑預報,準確率較高。24h預報,199次平均誤差123km,達到國內先進水平。用多項式等非線性模型,制作登陸我國及登陸廣東熱帶氣旋的年、月個數預測,經過3年實際應用檢驗,準確率達到70%~90%。用非線性預測模型的逐日氣壓場、逐日雨量場長期預測結果進行分析,制作廣東熱帶氣旋登陸時段、地段和南海海面熱帶氣旋出現時間的預報,準確率達到70%~80%,2002年熱帶氣旋的預報,采用長中短期預報相結合,數值預報與統計預報相結合,預報效果較佳。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve TC track and landfall forecast and to reduce the loss caused by TC, some nonlinear mathematic models of tropical cyclones are built. The results of research and experiments of more than 5 years show that TC track forecast with the exponential curve model has higher accuracy. The 24-hour average error of TC track forecast for 199 forecasts is about 123 km, which reaches an advanced level in TC track forecasting in China. Nonlinear forecasts such as multinomial curve models have been applied for 3 years in forecasting the number of TC in Guangdong Province. The accuracy can be as high as 70% to 90%. By means of the nonlinear model to analyze the long-term forecasts of day-to-day pressure and precipitation fields to make the landfall time and location forecast of TC, as well as the time forecast of TC appearing in South China Sea. The accuracy can be as high as 70% to 80%. The way of integrating medium and long term, numerical and statistical forecasting methods to forecast the TC track and landing time and location has been proved successful in 2002 TC forecasting practice.

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謝定升 翁向宇 曾琮.熱帶氣旋的路徑及登陸預報[J].氣象科技,2004,32(1):34~38

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  • 定稿日期:2003-01-24
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