基于ROSE2.0的普洱地區CINRAD/CC雷達冰雹探測算法評估及參數本地化
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云南省基層臺站氣象科技創新與能力提升計劃重點項目(STIAP202233、STIAP202229)、云南省氣象局創新團隊(2022CX07)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2022J021)共同資助


Evaluation of CINRAD/CC Radar Hail Detection Algorithm and Parameter Localization in Pu’er on ROSE2.0
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    摘要:

    為提高冰雹探測算法(Hail Detection Algorithm,HDA)產品的可用性,針對2015—2020年普洱地區監測到的22次冰雹個例,利用新一代雷達業務應用軟件ROSE2.0對相關雷達基數據進行回放及產品分析,以命中率、虛警率、臨界成功指數為指標對HDA算法在普洱地區的識別效果進行評估并給出本地化參數配置方案。結果表明:HDA算法在普洱地區命中率接近100%,但虛警現象非常普遍,使用強冰雹概率(Probability of Severe Hail,POSH)的預警效果優于任意大小冰雹概率(Probability of Hail,POH),且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虛警的概率越低。進一步使用模擬測評法對POSH算法的適配參數進行分析,發現正確輸入降雹日當天的0 ℃層和-20 ℃層高度能有效減少POSH的虛警率及提高臨界成功指數;同時使算法預測的最大冰雹直徑普遍偏大的情況得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直徑偏離百分比減小76.07%,改善效果顯著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH閾值能有效控制虛警,但也導致漏報次數快速增加,當閾值太大時命中率明顯降低,為了保證較高的命中率和臨界成功指數,選擇Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%為閾值能明顯改善HDA算法的識別效果。

    Abstract:

    In order to apply the Hail Detection Algorithm (HDA) related products more extensively and correctly, for the 22 hail cases monitored in Pu’er area from 2015 to 2020, the new Radar Operational Software Engineering (ROSE2.0) is used to replay radar-based data and analyse the relevant products. The recognition effect of the HDA algorithm in the Pu’er area is evaluated with the probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and critical success index (CSI), and a localised parameter configuration scheme is provided after that, which is useful to improve the local hail warning ability. The results show that although the POD of the HDA algorithm in Pu’er area is close to 100%, there are also many ordinary storm cells that are identified as hail cells mistakenly. The number of false alarms is very huge, and the low CSI cannot meet the requirement of the weather forecasting operation. The warning effect of using Probability of Severe Hail (POSH) is better than that of Probability of Hail (POH) for any size of hail, and the larger the size of hail, the lower the probability of false alarm of POSH. Further analysis of the adaptation parameters of the POSH algorithm by a simulation test method shows that the height of the 0 ℃ and -20 ℃ layers has a significant impact on the recognition ability of POSH, the original default value is significantly lower in Pu’er area, correctly inputting the height of 0 ℃ and -20 ℃ layers on the day of hail can effectively reduce the FAR and improve the CSI of POSH; at the same time, it can control the situation that the maximum hail diameter predicted by the algorithm is generally too large, and the maximum expected hail size (MEHS) is closer to the observation value; the deviation percentage of small and medium-sized hail diameter decreases by 76.07%, with a significantly higher improvement effect than large hail, but the diameter prediction error of MEHS for large hail is smaller. In addition, increasing the reflectivity factor and POSH threshold can effectively control FAR, but it also leads to a rapid increase in the number of missed alarms. When the threshold is too large, the POD significantly decreases. In order to achieve a higher POD and CSI, selecting Z=50 dBz or POSH=70% as the threshold can improve the recognition effect of the HDA algorithm. Setting the optimal threshold of multiple parameters at the same time can effectively improve the recognition ability of the HDA algorithm in Pu’er.

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陳卓,郭曉梅,姚自偉,周寶鵬,段瑋.基于ROSE2.0的普洱地區CINRAD/CC雷達冰雹探測算法評估及參數本地化[J].氣象科技,2024,52(3):330~339

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-19
  • 定稿日期:2024-01-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-06-25
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